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2012 Presidential Election Part 2 (Fall General Election) Please read rules before posting!

Discussion in 'Cafe toonzone' started by wonderfly, Jun 2, 2012.

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Who will you vote for for President of the United States?

  1. Barack H. Obama (Democrat)

    41 vote(s)
    60.3%
  2. W. Mitt Romney (Republican)

    11 vote(s)
    16.2%
  3. Other (Independent/Third Party)

    5 vote(s)
    7.4%
  4. Abstain

    4 vote(s)
    5.9%
  5. I'm ineligible to vote (due to age, nationality) but I'd vote for Obama

    5 vote(s)
    7.4%
  6. I'm ineligible to vote (due to age, nationality) but I'd vote for Romney

    1 vote(s)
    1.5%
  7. I'm ineligible to vote (due to age, nationality) but I'd vote "Other" (Independent/Third Party)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. I'm ineligible to vote (due to age, nationality) but I'd abstain from voting.

    1 vote(s)
    1.5%
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  1. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

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    Silver isn't a pundit. He's a handicapper. His job is to make a prediction. He can't just throw up his hands and say, "I dunno."

    But even pundits have to make some kind of prediction, why else would anyone listen to them? Although pundits, since they make predictions up based on what party they are loyal to, have the advantage of just telling people what they want to hear. Most of our political commentary is just reinforcing pre-held conceptions regardless of facts, and there's no blaming them for it because most people just close their ears and ignore anything that doesn't fall in line with what they want to believe. That's why when someone like Silver comes along with something that tries to be fact-based everyone gets nervous. He's not playing the game the way we're accustomed.
     
  2. Space Cadet

    Space Cadet I'M SWEATING
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    It seems to be a tradition every four years for a Republican candidate to campaign in Pennsylvania near the end of the election. And they haven't won Pennsylvania since George H.W. Bush did it in 1988. I think Obama will win it by 3 or 4 percentage points.

    Honestly, I'm a little bit surprised that Nevada is going to Obama, since their unemployment rate is above 10%. Then again, they have a booming Hispanic population and from what I hear, the Nevada GOP is in terrible shape(like California GOP terrible). And New Mexico was suppose to be a swing state, but it looks like the state is turning into a blue state.
     
  3. The Landstander

    The Landstander Thanks ants. Thants.

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    Median bias

    I think I've mentioned it before, but while Nate Silver is an Obama supporter and Democrat, he doesn't skew his predictions in that way: he was talking about major GOP gains in 2010 pretty early in the cycle, predicted Scott Brown's Senate win, etc. Incidentally, I've been following Silver since 2007 and the Clinton/Obama primary races where he started being known, and have always found him to be insightful when it comes to understanding polling.

    It's not that Romney has no chance - if I told you you had a 1-in-10 chance of being struck by lightning if you went out today, you'd probably stay in - but a Romney victory would mean that a lot of different polls and pollsters would have to be wrong in a systematic fashion. Similarly, national polling seems to be more in line with state polling as of late, with Obama working up a narrow but consistent lead (Gallup, which served as a Romney-leaning outlier for awhile, may or may not release a final tracking poll tomorrow - should be interesting).
    In addition to this, Harry Reid has worked a very effective political machine in Las Vegas, which remains the central strength of the state. If Shelley Berkeley can beat the odds and defeat Dean Heller in the Senate race, you'll know it's going to prove very hard to beat in general (given that Heller is a way better candidate).

    edit: meanwhile, Florida Governor and former con man Rick Scott is still trying his darndest to make early voting as difficult as possible in Florida (this was after his ridiculous voting purge, which he did twice [over the objections of county officials], and different than what Jeb Bush or Charlie Crist did)
     
  4. Jacob

    Jacob Moderator
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    Oh boy! Only 48 hours till Mitt's concession speech! Can't wait! :)
     
  5. wonderfly

    wonderfly Shaking things up a bit
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    Not if any of these 4 "Nightmare Scenarios" come true. Yes, it's another list of Nightmare scenarios, but these are new ones, including:

    1. The national vote count is thrown into doubt due to Hurricane Sandy.
    2. Provisional ballots from some states not being counted till days later (if the vote is close enough that these will determine the winner).
    3. Disputes over machine errors and ballot errors.
    4. "Citizen poll watchers" (like this Tea Party offshoot called "True the Vote") playing vigilantes at polling stations.

    Meanwhile, on a lighter note, the Washington Redskins lost, so therefore Mitt Romney will win. ;)
     
  6. Peter Paltridge

    Peter Paltridge Knows about rock people
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    Not so fast. There WILL be a commotion over counting all those close ballots. Gore didn't concede for at least a month after Election Day 2000.

    Somehow I forget how 2000 worked (despite living then). Bush won the electoral vote, didn't he? So if that's the only thing that really counts, why was there a debate? Why did the popular vote need to be settled if it didn't result in its winner getting elected? Why care?
     
  7. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

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    No, it was an electoral issue. Florida was really close and those electoral votes were enough to change the outcome if the recount had gone Gore's way.

    [​IMG]

    This is real. Talk about rats on a sinking ship.

    If it isn't clear, McMahon is a Republican and used to be a Romney supporter.

    http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/linda-mcmahon-vote-for-obama.php?ref=fpa
     
  8. GWOtaku

    GWOtaku Moderator
    Staff Member Moderator Reporter

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    The article says multiple times she's still a Romney supporter, pointing to a rather unusual effort to actually court base voters for the other party. That flyer sure is something though.

    Just in case you or anyone you know needs a little help finding the right polling place:

    https://www.google.com/elections/ed/us/vote


    [video=youtube_share;pele5vptVgc]http://youtu.be/pele5vptVgc[/video]
     
  9. stephane dumas

    stephane dumas Well-Known Member

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    One guy on City-Data forums posted an interesting rant about Gary Johnson http://www.city-data.com/forum/elec...ider-voting-gary-johnson-3.html#ixzz2BMtRJsWr


     
  10. wonderfly

    wonderfly Shaking things up a bit
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    I had to combine a few posts. Try not to double posts guys.

    Michael Barone of the Washington Examiner: Romney wins in a landslide. He admits he's going out on a limb though.

    From the article:

     
  11. stephane dumas

    stephane dumas Well-Known Member

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    Then when you'll get older, 15 or 20 years later, being close to the big 4-0, you begin to have second thoughts and think "if only...". ;)
     
  12. SB20xx

    SB20xx Oooooh!
    Staff Member Moderator Reporter

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    I was talking to one of my friends about politics and when I said I was voting for Gary Johnson, he gave me the inevitable "oh you're throwing your vote away by voting for an independent" remark. This poisonous line of thinking bugs me. First of all, if enough people "threw their votes away", a difference could actually be made. Second, even though the flawed voting system means that a vote for such-and-such is an indirect vote for one of the two big candidates, it's never throwing your vote away if you're voting for who you truly think is fit to run the country and not voting for the "lesser of two evils". People should never feel obligated to choose between only two people if they don't really like either choice. It doesn't help that the media gives nearly all the attention to the big two, at the expense of anyone else.

    Bottom line: Vote with your conscience, not from peer pressure.
     
  13. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

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    It says multiple times she still claims to be, but she's clearly interested in her own skin at Romney's expense.

    The fact that it went out in minority neighborhoods, shows her talking to a black person on the front, and never mentions she's a Republican makes it clear it's just a cynical and insulting deception. Since she's listed on the independent line on the ballot she's hoping some low-information voters will think she's an independent and that she was endorsed by Obama, or at least that they have similar policies. But that strategy sure doesn't help Romney.

    If you vote for a third party candidate that you know has no chance in hell of winning, what representation do you get out of it? How do you shift government in the direction you want it to go? Elections aren't just about taking stands. Politicians DO things after they are elected, so the way I think about it is that you need to stay informed about what they're going to do, have an idea of who is most likely to get in a position to start doing stuff, and then push it in the way you want it to go. If I could get involved in a movement that could sweep Jill Stein into the White House I would do that in a second, but since she's still too far out of the mainstream for that to happen my best bet to push things in the direction I want, at least a little bit, is Obama.
     
    #1033 Shawn Hopkins, Nov 5, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 5, 2012
  14. stephane dumas

    stephane dumas Well-Known Member

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    Is it my imagination or you're afraid to take the risk to try for a 3rd party to push for growing and growing, keeping the ball rolling to shake things to put more excitement in the statu-quo routine? You might take a direction then you might regret later when you'll be 35 or 40 years old. I know, I did the same mistake when I once voted in the Quebec provincial elections of 1994 for the PQ and the hope wasn't as I hoped.

    On the other side, Jill Stein isn't the wicked witch like Nancy Pelosi.
     
  15. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

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    I'm 36 now, Stephane. Most of the regular posters in this thread are in their 30s at least. But even the ones that aren't can make their own choices, so please stop the "you'll wise up when you get older" stuff.
     
  16. defunctzombie

    defunctzombie 1992 not 2002
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    Yeah, I'm one of the babies here. I only clock in at 24. But that doesn't mean that I'll regret who I vote for.
     
  17. stephane dumas

    stephane dumas Well-Known Member

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    Ok but don't tell me then I didn't warned you later and I used much of the other cliche of "the guy who try to prevent another guy to do the same mistakes then he did". ;)
     
  18. Aquadementia

    Aquadementia That's a lot of Mulaney!
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    Speaking as someone who has voted for a 3rd party candidate, you may find yourself sweating it out twice as much on election night hoping your state goes to the guy with a real chance.

    I think it’s better then not voting at all.

    In my opinion if a 3rd party wants to be taken seriously they should be working to prove themselves at the local level in offices like county clerk and state legislator and eventually more powerful positions like state offices and U.S. congress/senate and governor. Maybe after that a candidate will be seen with some credibility. As it is now these presidential bids are little more then advertising that their party exists.
    It’s not like there isn’t opportunity for this. If you look at your ballot most of those lower positions will probably have one candidate running unopposed.
    I’ve been thinking this for 16 years but have seen very little of it. None in my area.
     
  19. Peter Paltridge

    Peter Paltridge Knows about rock people
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    Well. Instead of providing insurance for full-time workers, which will be the law under Obamacare, a lot of companies are just shifting to entirely part-time workers.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/health-law-spurs-shift-hours-022100532.html
    This of course results in a lower-quality output of whatever product they offer, but it's worth it to not spend more on their deserving employees and less on another five million for the CEO's dog.

    Looks like that blew up in Brock's face. Let's not forget this whole thing is sort of a compromise since actual socialized medicine would never make it two steps past Congress. The hope was that corporations would provide health care for us if we forced them, but we clearly haven't found a way to close all the loopholes to stop them from being jerks.

    And there may not be a way. Closing this one would require making health insurance mandatory for EVERY worker, and THEN they would just hire everyone as a "freelance contractor," even the janitors.
     
  20. cognitofalcon

    cognitofalcon G'night evry' body!!

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    I'm right at 18 = )

    I feel cheated having to vote for either of these candidates.
     
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