Five-thirty-eight (electoral votes for Romney, that is) First thing is first: Larry Flynt is kind of a scumbag, but he also kinda owns. With apologies for picking on Dick Morris (the world's easiest target), there's a certain poetry to this. Way back in September, a site called Unskewed Polls opened up - you can see me mention it in this thread when it first starting making the rounds online - which had this very same concept: polls are undersampling Republicans systematically, therefore Romney landslide (and those "bad polls" for Romney? actually good, when you unskew them!). The biggest thing to note here is that party ID is a fluid concept that they're polling for - what party people identify as can change, even during the course of a campaign, and only a small number of pollsters weigh their numbers so as to "match" a determined partisan ID sample (the big one that does this is Rasmussen). Incidentally, the Unskewed Polls guy posted a hilarious commentary about how he's figured the whole 'election' thing out and that Nate Silver is a liberal who looks kinda gay so don't trust his computer numbers (seriously read the fourth paragraph). So, a pattern that I've seen repeat itself constantly the past few years has happened again - theory begins via conservative blogger, slowly filters into the Fox News 'mainstream' (see also: ACORN, Solyndra, the crazier stories about Benghazi). I feel dumb for not seeing it coming. I mean, of course this Chambers guy could turn out to be right (he won't, but he could) - but the point is, Morris's "professional pundit" prediction is basically the same as the Unskewed Polls guy, at this point. I'll take those odds. edit: Also, I don't think Obama has this in the bag - if the margin of error does head in his way, I think his path is: NC + FL + VA + OH + one of CO/IA/NH I don't buy this "expand the map" stuff, he's blitzing Pennsylvania/Michigan/Minnesota but that never works and Obama's leads there are solid. I also don't buy that he could win Nevada. At the end of the day - as it's been for the past month - he simply needs to break through in Ohio while keeping a streak on the swing states.