1. We are looking for a volunteer to help out with entering the DC and Marvel comics solicitations. If you are interested, please contact Harley.
    Dismiss Notice
  2. Just in time for Halloween, enter for a chance to win a $50 Gift Card from FUN.com! Details here.
    Dismiss Notice

2012 Presidential Election Part 2 (Fall General Election) Please read rules before posting!

Discussion in 'Cafe toonzone' started by wonderfly, Jun 2, 2012.

?

Who will you vote for for President of the United States?

  1. Barack H. Obama (Democrat)

    41 vote(s)
    60.3%
  2. W. Mitt Romney (Republican)

    11 vote(s)
    16.2%
  3. Other (Independent/Third Party)

    5 vote(s)
    7.4%
  4. Abstain

    4 vote(s)
    5.9%
  5. I'm ineligible to vote (due to age, nationality) but I'd vote for Obama

    5 vote(s)
    7.4%
  6. I'm ineligible to vote (due to age, nationality) but I'd vote for Romney

    1 vote(s)
    1.5%
  7. I'm ineligible to vote (due to age, nationality) but I'd vote "Other" (Independent/Third Party)

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  8. I'm ineligible to vote (due to age, nationality) but I'd abstain from voting.

    1 vote(s)
    1.5%
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. The Landstander

    The Landstander Thanks ants. Thants.

    Joined:
    Oct 30, 2002
    Messages:
    10,839
    Likes Received:
    0
    Five-thirty-eight (electoral votes for Romney, that is)

    First thing is first: Larry Flynt is kind of a scumbag, but he also kinda owns.

    With apologies for picking on Dick Morris (the world's easiest target), there's a certain poetry to this. Way back in September, a site called Unskewed Polls opened up - you can see me mention it in this thread when it first starting making the rounds online - which had this very same concept: polls are undersampling Republicans systematically, therefore Romney landslide (and those "bad polls" for Romney? actually good, when you unskew them!).

    The biggest thing to note here is that party ID is a fluid concept that they're polling for - what party people identify as can change, even during the course of a campaign, and only a small number of pollsters weigh their numbers so as to "match" a determined partisan ID sample (the big one that does this is Rasmussen). Incidentally, the Unskewed Polls guy posted a hilarious commentary about how he's figured the whole 'election' thing out and that Nate Silver is a liberal who looks kinda gay so don't trust his computer numbers (seriously read the fourth paragraph).

    So, a pattern that I've seen repeat itself constantly the past few years has happened again - theory begins via conservative blogger, slowly filters into the Fox News 'mainstream' (see also: ACORN, Solyndra, the crazier stories about Benghazi). I feel dumb for not seeing it coming. I mean, of course this Chambers guy could turn out to be right (he won't, but he could) - but the point is, Morris's "professional pundit" prediction is basically the same as the Unskewed Polls guy, at this point.

    I'll take those odds.

    edit:
    Also, I don't think Obama has this in the bag - if the margin of error does head in his way, I think his path is:
    NC + FL + VA + OH + one of CO/IA/NH
    I don't buy this "expand the map" stuff, he's blitzing Pennsylvania/Michigan/Minnesota but that never works and Obama's leads there are solid. I also don't buy that he could win Nevada. At the end of the day - as it's been for the past month - he simply needs to break through in Ohio while keeping a streak on the swing states.
     
  2. wonderfly

    wonderfly Shaking things up a bit
    Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2002
    Messages:
    17,362
    Likes Received:
    216
    No problems with picking Dick Morris, he's got it coming. I'd love for him to be right though. I'm curious about what your "craziers stories about Bengazi" are, Landstander, but I've got to move on with posting this:

    We're are now entering the final weekend before the general election on Tuesday!

    And it's time for closing arguments! Does anyone want to share why they are voting for the candidate of their choice? What brought you to this decision? What's your reasoning for voting for your candidate, or against the other candidate?

    Feel free to continue sharing news stories or polls, I was just wondering if anyone wanted to finalize (in summary) why they're voting the way they will this upcoming Tuesday.
     
  3. MDawg

    MDawg Nerfariously planning

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2001
    Messages:
    16,505
    Likes Received:
    312
    Mother Jones has a chart and full breakdown every major conspiracy theory about Obama that the GOP/conservatives love to use to attack him and then proceeds to debunk them for the lies they are.
     
  4. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2002
    Messages:
    29,444
    Likes Received:
    0
    The pundit class hates Nate Silver because he uses that fancy "math" stuff to make accurate handicapping predictions (look at his record in 2008). All people like Dick Morris have are their "guts" and partisan hackery, so Silver threatens to put them out of a job.

    He doesn't believe in God, so the idea of "answering" to it probably doesn't scare him.
     
  5. wonderfly

    wonderfly Shaking things up a bit
    Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2002
    Messages:
    17,362
    Likes Received:
    216
    I know, which is why it's perplexing: by suggesting Mourdock's version of "God's will" is incorrect, Flint's saying he knows God's will better than Mourdock. Wouldn't he be better off sticking to arguing that God doesn't exist? Let the religious debate religion, let the athiests debate if there is any point to religion.

    But we're going off course here, so...feel free to respond, but I probably won't respond again on this issue. I'm not upset, I just don't want to steer things too far off topic.
     
  6. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2002
    Messages:
    29,444
    Likes Received:
    0
    You don't have to believe, that, say, Harry Potter really happened to be able to understand it and debate about Voldemort. And he's not saying that he knows God's will any better than Mourdock, he's alluding to the idea that no one can know God's will, and that to vainly pretend to speak for God to support a political point is blasphemous.

    Oh, going back to the crazier stories about Benghazi, it's the one that implies the president, cuz he hates 'merica, withheld assistance during the attack. Doesn't look like that one's true, according to more recent accounts that come from places that aren't Fox News.

    http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-libya-cia-20121102,0,2438659.story

    Matt Romney traveled to Russia to tell Putin not to worry about all that number one enemy stuff, because his dad lies a lot.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/us/politics/matt-romney-goes-to-russia-for-business.html?_r=0

    The non-partisan Congressional Research Service released a report in September that finds no evidence that lowering taxes for the rich encourages economic growth, basically bulldozing the central pillar of Republican economic policy. Of course, Republicans tried to quash it and had it withdrawn. The article has other examples of Republicans trying to discredit non-partisan studies that come to conclusions they don't like.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/b...es-report-on-tax-rates.html?ref=business&_r=0

    Oh, this is kind of fun. Most racist ads of this election cycle. Some doozies in here.

    http://thinkprogress.org/election/2012/11/02/1133671/the-5-most-racist-ads-of-2012/
     
    #1006 Shawn Hopkins, Nov 2, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 2, 2012
  7. stephane dumas

    stephane dumas Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Messages:
    5,196
    Likes Received:
    84
  8. wonderfly

    wonderfly Shaking things up a bit
    Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2002
    Messages:
    17,362
    Likes Received:
    216
    A lot of the conservative radio shows yesterday were focused on Obama and the Federal Governments slow* response to Sandy. A lot of major news outlets (like CNN) were airing videos like this one (and other similar videos):

    [video=youtube;IkwBQRH42J0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkwBQRH42J0[/video]

    Sean Hannity in particular was saying stuff like "Where's Obama in this crisis?!? He's out campaigning. He's out laughing it up with people on the campaign trail. If this was George Bush, the news outlets would show a split screen, one side showing Bush laughing with people on the campaign trail, the other side showing suffering New Yorkers".

    And you know what? He's right. It's a double standard, and I hope voters keep it in mind this Tuesday.

    * = "slow" open to interpretation, some will say the Feds have been unprepared for the gas shortage, others say they're doing the best they can, but hey, if it was Bush, it's be "THE UNCARING MONSTER PRESIDENT".

    EDIT: Added more:

    Here's a news article on MSNBC's front page about the ongoing problems due to Hurricane Sandy, and it doesn't mention anyone angry at Obama.

    Instead, there is a segment on the NBC nightly news where David Gregory says that the hurricane will help Obama.


    Compare all this to coverage Hurricane Katrina and George Bush.
     
  9. The Huntsman

    The Huntsman Friend of Toon Zone

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2005
    Messages:
    12,553
    Likes Received:
    10
    Katrina didn't happen a week before the election. What would you have Obama do? Suspend his campaign, and likely forfeit the election, so he can... do what, exactly? I understand that the optics aren't great, but people were mad at Bush for far more than optics. By most accounts, the government is on the site and are doing what they can to help people. It's not going perfectly, but this is by no means Katrina.
     
  10. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2002
    Messages:
    29,444
    Likes Received:
    0
    With Benghazigate fizzling the Republican pundits are grasping at straws. The media isn't treating it like Katrina because Obama is objectively doing a better job. Not a perfect job, but Bush's incompetent horrorshow set the bar really damn low. Obama has tried to undo Bush's gutting of FEMA, he suspended his campaign in advance of the storm, and even the Republican governor of New Jersey, the guy who was Romney's first pick for VP, praised his response.
     
  11. Jacob

    Jacob Moderator
    Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2009
    Messages:
    2,411
    Likes Received:
    1
  12. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2002
    Messages:
    29,444
    Likes Received:
    0
  13. The Huntsman

    The Huntsman Friend of Toon Zone

    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2005
    Messages:
    12,553
    Likes Received:
    10
    I think there is a fine line between optimism and arrogance. If anything, numbers like that will hurt Obama. People need to realize that this election is very close, as if people think that it's safe for them not to vote, he will lose. I've supported Obama from the very beginning, but frankly, I have a feeling in my gut that he is going to lose on Tuesday. We will see.
     
  14. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2002
    Messages:
    29,444
    Likes Received:
    0
    Silver isn't about gut or optimism. He's about math. He takes the poll numbers, puts them into his model, and this is what comes out. That sure sounds like a more sound forecasting system to me. Of course you are right that people still have to vote, though.
     
  15. GWOtaku

    GWOtaku Moderator
    Staff Member Moderator Reporter

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2003
    Messages:
    36,779
    Likes Received:
    377
    The Benghazi story, so over with that on Friday the Washington Post editorialized about the troubling unanswered questions that still exist about it, as did the Wall Street Journal.
    ______________________________________

    Gallup's survey of early voting suggests that it's not 2008 again on this front for Democrats, which is something to take seriously as a tangible indicator of how voter turnout could go. Obama was stronger in 2008, and while one can suggest Gallup is an outlier its demographic breakdown of early voters is not significantly different from the last two elections.

    I figure your average grassroot voter is totally not nerding out on daily polls and reading 538 every day, while most degrees of awareness would suggest an engaged person with an interest in voting. The bigger danger is probably the "meh" voters.
     
  16. wonderfly

    wonderfly Shaking things up a bit
    Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2002
    Messages:
    17,362
    Likes Received:
    216
    A lot of Democrats are holding onto these polls for assurance. If Romney does win, how large of a "rebellion" (for lack of a better word) will there be from Democrats? "But..the polls said Obama was ahead!!" The polls can suggest all they want, sometimes it's just a matter of turnout on election day.

    EDIT: Good analysis of early voting this year versus 2008.

    While Democrats are still in the lead among early voting in Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio, Republicans are in the lead among early voting in Colorado.

    And the margins are much closer than they were in 2008, when Republicans didn't even really seem to care about early voting.

    Just look at early voting in Florida now compared to 2008, for an example of the difference:

     
  17. Jacob

    Jacob Moderator
    Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2009
    Messages:
    2,411
    Likes Received:
    1
    He bases his calls on poll numbers. I would agree that it is going to be a REALLY close election... but if you look only 2 states: Wisconsin and Ohio. These are really the only states that matter. If Obama can win those two he wins the election. Why is Silver so confident Obama WILL win those states? Because he has been ahead there in literally every single poll taken this year... save for one or two. But there have been about twenty thousand polls so one or two is nothing. For Romney to win one of those states, it would be a huge upset.
     
  18. Shawn Hopkins

    Shawn Hopkins TZ Member of the Year 2013

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2002
    Messages:
    29,444
    Likes Received:
    0
    Honest answer? Republicans have been doing so many hinky things with voting machine companies that Democrats will take it as proof that they stole the election. A lot of them are already expecting it, I've seen several discussions to that effect on liberal blogs. It will not be pretty.

    Romney could definitely beat the odds. Even Silver's more sophisticated modeling is just handicapping, and long shots do come in. I agree with GW that Silver's numbers being high won't affect much. Anyone who follows them is probably a political junkie who is going to vote. Otherwise, the media wants it to look like a neck and neck horse race and lower information voters will see it that way, so they'll either be motivated to vote by that info or not.

    But more sophisticated political consumers would be foolish to disregard polling just because it gives them numbers they don't like. Polling is the most important tool for campaigns to see how they are doing during campaign season and make course correction, and it's a lot better predictor than"gut." Case in point, when Obama's numbers crapped the bed after Denver, I didn't really just try to fool myself that the numbers were wrong. I donated money to the campaign. And the campaign didn't move into a fantasy land where the numbers were wrong, it kicked into higher gear to try to make up its mistake.
     
  19. wonderfly

    wonderfly Shaking things up a bit
    Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Mar 22, 2002
    Messages:
    17,362
    Likes Received:
    216
    Most polls over the last month show Romney in the lead with the national vote (though it's getting closer here in the last few days, admittedly), so I still find it likely that Romney wins the popular vote, the question is will he win the electoral vote? And the pundits have been throwing out these polls that show Obama ahead in the polls of many of the key battleground states (thus, we have the "Midwest Firewall" as we've discussed).

    Well, I can say that if Obama wins the electoral vote, but not the popular vote, look to most Republicans just swallowing their distaste and just accepting that Obama won (they have only to look to the year 2000 to know they just need to accept the electoral count and live with it). The question is, if Romney barely wins the electoral count (and also wins the popular vote), do Democrats try to pull the "He's not OUR President" and "The vote was too close, so he's got no clear mandate to govern, so we don't have to go along with him!" stuff that they did back in 2000? All because the polls showed a slight lead in Wisconsin and Ohio?!? There are "margins of error" in those polls for a reason.

    I really have no clue who's going to win Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Iowa, and I think the news pundits would be better served to make clear the disclaimers in these polls and just reach a point where they say "Look, we can't say for certain who's going to win!"
     
  20. GWOtaku

    GWOtaku Moderator
    Staff Member Moderator Reporter

    Joined:
    Feb 21, 2003
    Messages:
    36,779
    Likes Received:
    377
    Expect a lot of absurdity and sensationalism if one state makes the difference and we're talking something like a 1% margin. If not, probably not.

    If I had to pick one state liable to surprise people, it's Pennsylvania. Some polls have shown it surprisingly close, it's in a worse economic place than Ohio, and Romney and Ryan both campaigned there this weekend - meaning there were people pretty high up who perceived a real opportunity. There's been considerable money spent there also.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  • Find Toonzone on Facebook

  • Toonzone News

  • Site Updates

    Upcoming Premieres

  • Toonzone Fan Sites


Tac Anti Spam from Surrey Forum