Earth doomed in 2036, 1/45,000 chance

[HellCat]

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...src=rss&rpc=22

Great, 3 days before I turn 50.

[Zach Logan]

I guess I'll have to run in 2032 for President. That way I won't suffer the dreaded second term curse.

[Gatomon41]

NASA: Well, well, well...Looks who coming back to grovel at our feet! Hi everyone, I guess you need our fancy spaceships now don't ya? "Oh, we don't need them anymore 'cus we got to da moon!". I guess you need those "useless" rockets after all.

[HellCat]

I'm reminded of a G-Saviour review I read once "Apparently in the future mankind has moved to orbiting space colonies. This must be some kind of alternate reality, given the current condition of our space programme. Right now we'd be making more head way if we had a guy on a pogo stick shouting "I'm going to the mooooon!" "

[Gatomon41]

I'm reminded of a G-Saviour review I read once "Apparently in the future mankind has moved to orbiting space colonies. This must be some kind of alternate reality, given the current condition of our space programme. Right now we'd be making more head way if we had a guy on a pogo stick shouting "I'm going to the mooooon!" "

Sort of like how Cowboy Bebop is supposed to happen in 2060, even though it's 2007 and we don't even have the capability to leave the Earth sphere, let alone design space trucks and terraforming

Joking aside, it still hurts alot of us sf fans and professors who know the story of how the Space Program got to that sorry state.

[MJC]

As much as it would suck if Apophis hit, it's not actually big enough to wipe out humanity.

[HellCat]

Sort of like how Cowboy Bebop is supposed to happen in 2060, even though it's 2007 and we don't even have the capability to leave the Earth sphere, let alone design space trucks and terraforming

Joking aside, it still hurts alot of us sf fans and professors who know the story of how the Space Program got to that sorry state.

I believe the official G Gundam timeline says that in 1995 America pioneered a resurgence in space travel and the president oversaw the first successful manned mission to Mars.

Yep...why can't the public get behind this? Davina McCall (a supposed UK celebrity) was on Room 101 (show where famous people discuss things they hate) recently. Her first choice were space programmes, which she called a complete waste of time and money. Yeah, you cling to your dieing little dirt ball and ignore the greater wonders of the universe....

[veemonjosh]

While we're at it with the giant robot comparisons, here's what'll REALLY happen when this thing hits:

That's right, 2036 will Be This Earth's SECOND IMPACT.

The question is, WILL WE SURVIVE?

It'll Be up To The children, but will We Be able (To prevent THIRD IMPACT?

ONLY TIME WILL TELL...

[Gatomon41]

Yep...why can't the public get behind this? Davina McCall (a supposed UK celebrity) was on Room 101 (show where famous people discuss things they hate) recently. Her first choice were space programmes, which she called a complete waste of time and money. Yeah, you cling to your dieing little dirt ball and ignore the greater wonders of the universe....

Espiecally since the Space Program has a rather small budget compared to the money going out to socail programs. NASA budget during Apollo was spare change compared to other budgets.

Every great space opera, from Star Trek to Gundam relys on the space program. How else will we get to see the stars? Or in the case of Gundam, fight gaint robots in space Actually, First Gundam probably has shown more realism in space colonization than recent episodes of Star Trek.

Before I go, I have to do this:

"I KNEW HE WAS STILL ALIVE! Apophis dosn't die that easilly!" - Gen. Jack O'neal

[HellCat]

One solution- we force people to watch the Enterprise opening sequence on a loop. If that doesn't get you excited in the concept...

[Zeonic Freak]

So if Areosmith is still alive in 2036 and we blow the thing up to peices, they will be ready with a rocking theme!!!!

Well, i told my dad about this last night, which lead to how astroids burned up in the atmosphere, to how planes take the atmospheres, to his college in waco (which wasnt far from the Waco Incident in '93, but he was there back in the early 80's) to how jets take off, and to him knocking my VCR off my Television when he clocked his head back imitating how jet engines sound...

All within, 20 minutes or so.

http://today.reuters.com/news/articl...src=rss&rpc=22

Great, 3 days before I turn 50.

Ill be enjoying being 50 for like 4 months before it hits... God, thats like fore-
<blink of an eye later> -ver, wait, i cant see my Screen, and i have wrinkles??? How times flys.

[Juu-kuchi]

Great, that's just what I need, now I won't be able to sleep tonight knowing that.

But 30 years is enough time to hopefully rally enough technology and knowhow to take that asteroid down, as long as the mission is nothing like the one in Armageddon. If that's the case then we're all screwed.

[tucsoncoyote]

Actually I fiddled around with the Nasa simulator of the orbit and the position of April 13, 2029 is a lot closer to Earth then the 2039 event they are talking about..but the event of April 13, 2029 does bring up one important point.

The way if I recall this is that for the Impact to Occur the orbiting body in this case Apophis, has to pass through an Imaginary "Keyhole" about the size of 6 football fields (600 meters wide) on the date above to change the trajectory just enough so that in 2039 the impact would be more then 1 in 45,000. more like 1 in 20.

In short we're talking here of a 390 meter asteroid trying to thread a point in space roughly twice the size of it's own diameter... that's sort of like trying to thread a 22 caliber bullet through a hole the size of a penicl eraser..(It's not impossible but it's highly improbable. But still when you are a man of statistics and probabilty, if an event happens then all bets are off.

So if it does happen the 2039 event will more then likely happen. but again the odds of that happeneing are something on the order of 1 in 45,000 to 1 in 20, and that in itself is better odds then say someone who gets into a car accident, which is 1 in 8.

but consideirng 2029 is just 22 years away, I'll be 66 when the event happens, barring accidents or whatever..

but still it's so small of a chance that you have better luck getting hit by a train then this coming down on your heads..(but still when you got 22 years to do Something about it.. the real question is this:

Does Humanity even care about this event happening.. if they were they would be starting to formulate a plan NOW rather then sitting on their Collective keesters and talking about things about sex education of how their day went..

Frankly.. I'll be honest.. if Apophis does hit us, well I'll be the first one under it.. oh and if you are wondering how much damage a 390 meter wide asteroid can do.. Here's a good picture of one that is 1/40th the size of Apophis :

This is of course Meteor Crater (Barringer Crater) In Arizona.. and this was what a meteor of just the size of a small VW Mini-van did.. traveling at 8 miles a second.. The Impact left a crater the size of 4000 feet across and 600 feet deep, and this is just 1/40th the size of Apophis. so an Impact by Apophis would be 1,600 times larger... or to put it into perspective.. the crater itself would be well over 20 miles across and a depth of over 2 miles deep.. and this is the 'best case' scenario.

so yeah I think you guys need to seriously get your heads out of the collective gutter and start thinking seriously about this.. cause if it does happen? Well let's just say that I nor none of your elders are gonna clean up your messes. and that's putting it mildly.. oh and if you think you can deflect it? More power to you.. cause believe me, a 1 in 45,000 chance is betting mans odds that you have in Vegas.. and I always believe in the issue of, If it can happen.. there's a darn good chance it will..

Just my thoughts on this.

[RayChuang]

tucsoncoyote,

I think people forget what kind of damage that Apophis could do to Earth.

Besides the obvious damage from the shockwave of the impact (we're talking buildings suffering substantial blast shock wave damage as far away as 300 km from Ground Zero!), you have to factor in these additional problems:

1) The impact could trigger off substantial earthquakes at any nearby major earthquake fault possibly hundreds of miles away from Ground Zero. Of course, the areas close to the impact area will suffer major earthquake damage from severe ground shaking when the asteroid crashes into the ground.

2) If Apophis impacts on land it could throw hundreds of cubic miles of ground soil into the air--and that ground soil will rain back to the Earth at a temperature of 1,200° F., incinerating almost everything on the ground. In short, it would create a firestorm on an unprecedented scale in recorded human history.

3) It will kick up so much dust that Earth's climate could cool for 3-4 years, causing a mini Ice Age that could severely cut agricultural production.

[MJC]

"NASA has estimated that an impact from Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036, would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometers would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere."

NASA says the precise effect of a 460-foot (140-meter) object hitting the Earth would depend on what the asteroid was made of and the angle of impact.
Paul Slovic, president of Oregon-based Decision Research, which studies judgment, decision-making and risk analysis, said the asteroid could take out an entire city or region.

[Anyone00]

So... is Vegas taking bets?

[tucsoncoyote]

tucsoncoyote,

I think people forget what kind of damage that Apophis could do to Earth.

Besides the obvious damage from the shockwave of the impact (we're talking buildings suffering substantial blast shock wave damage as far away as 300 km from Ground Zero!), you have to factor in these additional problems:

1) The impact could trigger off substantial earthquakes at any nearby major earthquake fault possibly hundreds of miles away from Ground Zero. Of course, the areas close to the impact area will suffer major earthquake damage from severe ground shaking when the asteroid crashes into the ground.

2) If Apophis impacts on land it could throw hundreds of cubic miles of ground soil into the air--and that ground soil will rain back to the Earth at a temperature of 1,200&#176; F., incinerating almost everything on the ground. In short, it would create a firestorm on an unprecedented scale in recorded human history.

3) It will kick up so much dust that Earth's climate could cool for 3-4 years, causing a mini Ice Age that could severely cut agricultural production.

That's very True Ray, but you also forgot one additional factor...

4) If Apophis landed in one of the oceans (and there's a 70&#37; chance of that happening, (considering that 70% of the earth's surface is water), the tsunamis generated by such an event would make the 2004 Indian Ocean event look like someone jumping into a puddle. Folks we are not talking here a wave of up to 30 Meters high, but rather a wave at least 390 meters high, if not more.

(For those of you who want to get an idea here.. Take the Empire State building and put it next to one of these Waves, (if it did happen). we're talking something that would be as high as the 90th to 100th floor of the skyscraper..and considering that the Empire State building is 102 stories tall, that's a pretty good sized wave.. Plus because of the "Splash Effect" (that of tossing a rock into a puddle or pond), there wouldn't be just 1 wave.. but as many as 10 to 20 and some of those would be as high as I just mentioend.

So Yes Ray, I agree, but remember there's just a 30% chance of it impacting solid 'terra firma'.. the other 70% is all 'splash and dash' as I like to call it.

So if Apophis does his the water... the term 'Surf's up' will take on a whole new meaning.. and That's not figuratively either.. it's literal.. as in Surf's up... Way Up!

So... is Vegas taking bets?

Well if Vegas is Taking bets.. My advice if you are playing Roulette?: ... Bet on Black..(There's a 70% chance that you will win..)

NASA says the precise effect of a 460-foot (140-meter) object hitting the Earth would depend on what the asteroid was made of and the angle of impact.
Paul Slovic, president of Oregon-based Decision Research, which studies judgment, decision-making and risk analysis, said the asteroid could take out an entire city or region.

That's true but an Asteroid hitting a city is about as remote as say you or me getting struck by lightning. The odds of something Ray or myself are discussing are more along the 1 in 45,000 chance provided that the event I suggested did happen in 2029. (After all again we're talking a 390 meter sized iron/nickel/stone rock hitting an area of space roughly six football fields wide.. and in the worst case scenario if it flew through this 'Keyhole' in space, and was able to impact in 2036, there again lies the 70/30 Chance of Impact with Water/Earth.. add to that the angles and velocities that are factored in, plus everything Ray here has mentioned plus the added chance of what i just suggested.. there comes a phrase from a famous Cartoon Robot by the name of Bender...and it's this line that will be said if all the events happen without changing anything.

Bender: That's it, We're boned.

[Chrono1995]

How many times have been led to believe the Earth is going to end in the next 30 years? At this time, it's not going to be something like a comet or global warming. Earth will die by platypus.

[Temple Fugate]

I don't see any reason to panic. 2036 is, like, a billion years away.

Waitaminute...IT'S ALREADY 2007?!? But...but my book of Nostradamus quatrains doesn't mention this! I thought armageddon was scheduled for 2052?!?

Before I go, I have to do this:

"I KNEW HE WAS STILL ALIVE! Apophis dosn't die that easilly!" - Gen. Jack O'neal

I was thinking THE SAME THING. High five!

The question is, WILL WE SURVIVE?

Shinji's fingers in that picture have always creeped me out.

Now, seriously, how many of you saw them call it for 2036 and think "Well gee, that's gotta be at least two generations away."

[tucsoncoyote]

How many times have been led to believe the Earth is going to end in the next 30 years? At this time, it's not going to be something like a comet or global warming. Earth will die by platypus.

Ha ha ha ha! Death by Platypus.. I though Earth would have death by garbage...

Oh wait, you're being serious about the platypus aren't you?

Okay then... we're definitely done... Next Species Please.