I think Spirited Away is gonna bomb

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

Unless the release date has been moved, it's still September which is the official date. And I haven't seen one trailer, teaser or even an official promotional poster about it yet. If they plan to release this through the arthouse district, it's gonna bomb. If they just spring it on audiences without any promotion, it's gonna bomb. Heck, the film might just bomb by itself anyway.

Not good vibes from where I'm sitting...

[joshualane]

September 20th is the "wide" release date, although it's set to premiere on the 10th in LA and the poster was just recently released.

The film is getting a limited showing, not a huge release like Lilo & Stitch, so it's got a few weeks before any promotion will begin. And when promotion does begin, it will be aimed at adult animation fans, not little kids and the like. While I don't expect the film to be some sort of huge blockbuster, I'm guessing it will pull in several million at least and who knows what will happen from there.

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

Originally posted by joshualane
September 20th is the "wide" release date, although it's set to premiere on the 10th in LA and the poster was just recently released.

The film is getting a limited showing, not a huge release like Lilo & Stitch, so it's got a few weeks before any promotion will begin. And when promotion does begin, it will be aimed at adult animation fans, not little kids and the like. While I don't expect the film to be some sort of huge blockbuster, I'm guessing it will pull in several million at least and who knows what will happen from there.

Problem is, I consider this pretty much a kid's movie. Adult animation fans (i.e. arthouse) are NOT going to really be going to watch this, other than anime fans.

It's got bomb written all over it. Hopefully it'll at least make a few million more than Princess Mononoke's measly 2.5 million. :confused:

[Elven Moon]

I hope it plays in Detroit or Ann Arbor. At least then I could drive over there and see it.

As for bombing? Well, I don't know. I think it will do pretty OK, but it won't exactly rake in millions apon millions. We'll just have to see.

[Storm]

Can someone please explain what is "Spirited Away"

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

Let's put it this way: if it doesn't make over 10 million, I consider it a bomb, both as an arthouse and a mainstream film.

By the way, there is a press release somewhere floating around that says it will supposedly go "wide release" in October.

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

Originally posted by storm1288
Can someone please explain what is "Spirited Away"

Your money if this film is successful.

It's a film. Japan's top grossing film of all time, in fact. A Hayao Miyazaki film. If you know anime, you know Hayao Miyazaki.

[ShinjiFanGirl]

:( Blaugh. Well, if Spirited Away comes to LasVegas, I'm dragging my family to see it. I saw a trailor on comingsoon.com and it looks really good, and it's by Miyazaki, what can you say to that?

Of course it won't be a big hit, not nessecarily because it's anime, which a lot of parents would think, "Oh. It's a cartoon. It's safe to bring the kids to.", but because no one knows about it.


If they put a lot of time into getting the word out, and got a nation wide release, I'm sure it would be a hit at the box office. That isn't happening though.

Oh well.

[randomguy]

Oh, Jojo... so wrong. Adult Arthouse fans'll flock to Spirited Away. Miyazaki's name is a big draw that moves well beyond the anime boundary. It'll do alright for an arthouse flick; I wager. Better than Mononoke because it's easier to take in by the mainstream. I'll admit that Disney's promotion is pretty bad considering it comes out in a little over a month... but I'm taking a wait and see approach. Hell, we should be glad their releasing it at all after the "failure" of PM.

And 10 million is not a bomb for an arthouse picture either.

That being said, I couldn't care less how it performs. It'll be a triumph regardless of how much money it makes, because it's a good movie. And that's what matters when it all comes down to it.

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

Originally posted by randomguy
Oh, Jojo... so wrong. Adult Arthouse fans'll flock to Spirited Away. Miyazaki's name is a big draw that moves well beyond the anime boundary. It'll do alright for an arthouse flick; I wager. Better than Mononoke because it's easier to take in by the mainstream. I'll admit that Disney's promotion is pretty bad considering it comes out in a little over a month... but I'm taking a wait and see approach. Hell, we should be glad their releasing it at all after the "failure" of PM.

And 10 million is not a bomb for an arthouse picture either.



That's why I made 10 mil the cutoff point. 10 mil is GOOD, respectable for an arthouse flick. Not great. I don't expect big profits for this, but I hope it does better than Mononoke because then Disney might:

A: Finally get some DVDs of Kiki out the door.

B: Start actually RELEASING some of the other Ghibli flicks

C: Treat future Ghibli projects with more confidence.

This ain't just my hoping Ghibli movies do well; this is a selfish reason too. I don't want them to sit on the films forever not knowing how/wanting/insert_theory_here to release them at all because of the past Ghibli "failures".

Because if SA bombs BIG TIME...that pretty much is the final nail in the coffin, I'd guess. We might never see the Ghibli films released at all...

And if Miyazaki's name was such a big draw, Mononoke would have at least done better in the arthouse than 2.5 million...do you know how bad that is? The average arthouse flick at least makes 5-6 million.


Adult arthouse fans won't "flock" to SA. You and I will, and a bunch of otakus. Just like Mononoke. Mononoke did REALLY well for the first two weeks...then the audiences disappeared. WHAT HAPPENED? I'll tell you. All the otaku already watched it. In film terms, it didn't have "legs" outside of the anime world.

[Lachesis]

Oh, probably, in the traditional sense.

I've already seen the movie (SF Film Festival) and absolutely adore it, but I'm honestly not sure the U.S. is ready for this. There's so much inherently cultural material packed in here, I don't know how the average Mrs-Soccer-Mom is going to take it.

Disney getting the Ghibli films always struck me as a little funny. They have the resources to really do the American versions right, but not the guts to sell them.

[Zero Angel]

where the hell is my Laputa?

[Ed Liu]

Howdy,

Originally posted by Lachesis
There's so much inherently cultural material packed in here, I don't know how the average Mrs-Soccer-Mom is going to take it.


I think this is probably the hugest strike against widespread acceptance of Miyazaki's work in the States. I suspect this is also why I haven't cared for the attempts to Americanize Miyazaki's movies through celebrity voice actors and more colloquial English adaptations. No offense to Neil Gaiman, but I really hated the English dub of Mononoke, and Phil Hartman's last line as Jiji in Kiki nearly killed the movie for me.

For what it's worth, Miyazaki has given up on the American market. I don't think he expects to see a dime from us, especially after the disappointment of Mononoke here. He's said on more than one occasion that the Japanese market is the one he's aiming at, and it certainly makes him enough money. Since that's the case, I don't think Disney should do much to "localize" the releases at all and aim it at people who'd go watch a subtitled Japanese film in the first place.

My wife and I will go check out Spirited Away, although I don't know how many other people we'll get to drag along to it. I'm also just going to acquire a codeless DVD player, pay through the nose for the Japanese DVD releases (all of which come with English subtitles), and thumb my nose at Disney, the studio system that came up with region-coded releases, and the general population of American philistines who don't "get" Miyazaki :).

-- Ed/Ace

[Dub]

Isn't Disney or Miramax in charge of the staewide release of Miyazaki films? If so then of course it will...

I'm of the type that tends to think that the only reason Disney got the rights to broadcast Miyazaki's stuf is because it poses a threat to thier own in some way. That may be an off base comment, but i dont think its THAT far off base. While I didnt think Princess Mononoke was the best thing since sliced bread, I did like it and took notice of how people had to practically fight for it to get any decent treatment at all. :(

Same with Kiki too. -_____-

Of course, this might just be me babbling, but....I wouldnt be surprised.

[Evil Dr. Reef]

Originally posted by Elven Moon
I hope it plays in Detroit or Ann Arbor. At least then I could drive over there and see it.
Y'know, there's an "arthouse" theater over in Mt. Clemens that was playing Princess Mononoke when it was making it's theatrical run. I don't know if it's still there, but I'd be willing to bet that it'll have Spirited Away when it comes this way. At least, I hope it'll have it. As for SA bombing, I dunno. I think that the mail audience for it will be anime fans, but it could possibly attract a greater audience of people who think that their children should watch an animated movie that's not form Di$ney once in a while. Remember, SA is the highest grossing film of all time in Japan, dethroning Titanic, whic kicked off PM a couple of years ago. It's (apparently) very good, so I would be able to see people other than otakus going to see it. Just no too many of them.

[Sprocket]

...and where the hell is my Porco Rosso? I WANT MY PORCO ROSSO!

[Inkan1969]

$10 Million is too high for a limited release. Both "Mononoke" and "Waking Life" made only about $2 Million. I think "The Straight Story" did just as much.

BTW: If you live in SoCal go to the El Capitan Site (http://www.elcapitantickets.com) to get tickets for "Spirited Away". On September 10 there will be a special screening with Hayao Miyazaki himself appearing, and from September 20 to October 3 "Spirited Away" will have a regular run there.

- Inkan

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

Originally posted by Inkan1969
$10 Million is too high for a limited release. Both "Mononoke" and "Waking Life" made only about $2 Million. I think "The Straight Story" did just as much.


- Inkan

Straight Story made something in the mid teen millions altogether. A successful limited release expands to about 100 or 200 theatres nationwide. I wouldn't be surprised about "Waking Life" making peanuts, but movies like "Shall we Dance" and "In the Mood for Love" garnered about or over 12 mil. Even err...dang, there was a European animated movie a while ago...it made about 8 million.

The point is, I have a feeling that a modest number won't be enough for them to release future Ghiblis with more confidence. It has to prove it can move tickets if they are going to shuttle it to the land of arthouse. I mean, geez, originally they were going to release the Mononoke DVD DUB ONLY. I don't always think they know who they're targeting, how to market, and how to EXPAND their audience from there.

[Kuja's Light]

Princess Mononoke is an awesome movie. I recently got it on DVD, and I thought it was a masterpiece.

[ShinjiFanGirl]

Bluagh. Well, yes, I want to see SA in theatres, like all the Miyazaki films..*.*; but all that really matters to me is that they all get put on DVD. That might not happen though, 'cause Disney is evil.

[VashTheStampede]

Knowing my luck it probably won't open anywhere near me. :(

[joshualane]

Princess Mononoke made 2.4 million, Waking Life 2.9, Straight Story 6.2, In the Mood for Love made 2.7, and Shall We Dance? got 9.7...just an FYI.

The only major difference between all the films here (besides a few million in box office revenue) is that Mononoke, and Spirited Away, were already HUGELY successful films. There's no possible way those films can match the box office success they had in Japan. People seem to be thinking that just because Disney is behind the films in the US, that they should be doing more Disney like animated numbers. It's not going to happen, not to mention the fact that it's not really even Disney releasing the films, it's Miramax who released Mononoke & Touchstone who's releasing Spirited Away. The Disney marketing juggernaut isn't behind these films so don't expect them to get TV ads, posters all over the place, and happy-meal toys.

Let's look at another anime film though for referrence. When METROPOLIS premiered in Japan, it shattered domestic box office records and, as far as I know, currently resides in third place behind PRINCESS MONONOKE & SPIRITED AWAY (not counting non-Japanese movies like Titanic, etc). Columbia Tri-Star (owned by Sony) picked up the rights to that film and released it theatrically here in the US in a limited capacity, just like what Mononoke got. Metropolis didn't even make $1 million and it had the luxury of being released at a time where anime was more popular and more widely known that when Mononoke was released.

Will Spirited Away bomb, who knows, but given the history, if it can make $7 or $8 million, it's doing just fine.

As for those complaining about the lack of DVD's for Ghibli films, that's not Disney's fault, it was part of the deal when they got the rights from Ghibli. Ghibli wanted to release it's movies on DVD in Japan before they were released in the US so that folks in Japan wouldn't import the US DVD's and then not buy the Japanese ones. However, now that Ghibli has released most of it's films onto DVD, the folks from Disney have stated that they will be releasing about 2 a year starting with the eventual release of the Spirited Away DVD. They've also stated that all DVD's will contain the original Japanese track with Subtitles and an English track if one has been made (Laputa, KiKi, etc.).

So stop complaining already, Disney isn't out to destroy your precious anime films. Yes, they almost messed up with Mononoke, but they didn't, they learned what not to do, and now they know the market they're dealing with.

[BrendaBat]

where the hell is my Laputa?
A trailer for the video release of the dub was on my KiKi video, but I could never find it :(

[R Chocolate]

My Japanese friend says Laputa and Mononoke are her favorite Miyazaki films. Personally, I think SPIRITED AWAY will do well regarding the arthouse film release it's given.
They know it's not exactly mainstream fare and those looking for something like it will be sure to see it (it may not come to a movie theater near me but I'll catch it then on DVD/VHS just as I did with Miyazaki's other work).

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

Originally posted by joshualane
Princess Mononoke made 2.4 million, Waking Life 2.9, Straight Story 6.2, In the Mood for Love made 2.7, and Shall We Dance? got 9.7...just an FYI.

The only major difference between all the films here (besides a few million in box office revenue) is that Mononoke, and Spirited Away, were already HUGELY successful films. There's no possible way those films can match the box office success they had in Japan. People seem to be thinking that just because Disney is behind the films in the US, that they should be doing more Disney like animated numbers. It's not going to happen, not to mention the fact that it's not really even Disney releasing the films, it's Miramax who released Mononoke & Touchstone who's releasing Spirited Away. The Disney marketing juggernaut isn't behind these films so don't expect them to get TV ads, posters all over the place, and happy-meal toys.

Let's look at another anime film though for referrence. When METROPOLIS premiered in Japan, it shattered domestic box office records and, as far as I know, currently resides in third place behind PRINCESS MONONOKE & SPIRITED AWAY (not counting non-Japanese movies like Titanic, etc). Columbia Tri-Star (owned by Sony) picked up the rights to that film and released it theatrically here in the US in a limited capacity, just like what Mononoke got. Metropolis didn't even make $1 million and it had the luxury of being released at a time where anime was more popular and more widely known that when Mononoke was released.

Will Spirited Away bomb, who knows, but given the history, if it can make $7 or $8 million, it's doing just fine.

As for those complaining about the lack of DVD's for Ghibli films, that's not Disney's fault, it was part of the deal when they got the rights from Ghibli. Ghibli wanted to release it's movies on DVD in Japan before they were released in the US so that folks in Japan wouldn't import the US DVD's and then not buy the Japanese ones. However, now that Ghibli has released most of it's films onto DVD, the folks from Disney have stated that they will be releasing about 2 a year starting with the eventual release of the Spirited Away DVD. They've also stated that all DVD's will contain the original Japanese track with Subtitles and an English track if one has been made (Laputa, KiKi, etc.).

So stop complaining already, Disney isn't out to destroy your precious anime films. Yes, they almost messed up with Mononoke, but they didn't, they learned what not to do, and now they know the market they're dealing with.


Mononoke made 2.5 million. That is a fact, according to Variety, Wall Street Journal and Hollywood Reporter.

These are business concerns...not complaints against the so-called "DISNEY THE EMPIRE", so do not even presume to read my intentions unless I have given you the quotes to do so. Not once did I say I "hated" Disney or that I thought they would "ruin" my "precious" anime films (for the record, I think they are just films. I really WANT them, but I do not consider them as "art" to the degree that some people do) I would understand it if Disney had problems with releasing the Ghibli films...that's why I'm worried. I simply don't think SA itself has what it takes to satisfy projected box office sales.

And as for the DVDs...yes, I heard about that. However, I would have expected them to get at least 2 other Ghibli films out the door on VHS by now. Castle in the Sky and something else. I do not think it is a conspiracy against the films, but I DO think that this shows it is something they have at the BOTTOM of their priorities. Before one answers, "Of course it is!" well, as someone who would have liked to see them sooner, I want this to be a notch higher up on the list of priorities. I can understand them focusing more on their OWN cartoons, but quite frankly, I think the Castle in the Sky VHS has been delayed way too long.

And your figures for Metropolis...even more reason why I don't have good vibes for Spirited Away.

[RZetlin]

Originally posted by joshualane
People seem to be thinking that just because Disney is behind the films in the US, that they should be doing more Disney like animated numbers. It's not going to happen, not to mention the fact that it's not really even Disney releasing the films, it's Miramax who released Mononoke & Touchstone who's releasing Spirited Away. The Disney marketing juggernaut isn't behind these films so don't expect them to get TV ads, posters all over the place, and happy-meal toys.

So stop complaining already, Disney isn't out to destroy your precious anime films. Yes, they almost messed up with Mononoke, but they didn't, they learned what not to do, and now they know the market they're dealing with.

Disney does own Miramax so Disney should have influence on the release of Miyazaki's movies.

You would expect a mega corporation like Disney with its millions of dollars in resources to at least give Miyazaki's movies a decent promotion.

Why is it so hard to give Spirited Away a wide release?

There has been animated films with less quality than Spirited Away that got a wide release.

So far there has been no indication that the marketers learned anything from the Princess Mononoke promotion.

We are about a month away from the release of Spirited Away. Shouldn't we start hearing some buzz from Disney about this movie?

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

I agree. I don't think that Disney is conspiring against Ghibli as some people might, but I do think they are unsure of what they're doing.

I would think that a Spirited Away failure in a wide release would be much easier to swallow than a homegrown failure that they sank 10x as much money in. At worst, a failed wide release would make about 9-12 million, which isn't so bad since the majority of the money Disney spends on this pic would be marketing. They can't have spent more than 4 or 5 million (that's being VERY generous, too) for the distributuon rights of this film. Add another 7-8 million on marketing and dubbing and you're really not wasting a lot of money. So why the caution? Why not just go nuts on the marketing and see what comes out of it?

I thought the deal with Tokuma was supposed to be a rather big thing. This is not Harvey Weinstein seeing some Joe Schmoe's low-budget flick at Cannes and deciding to give it a limited release, this is a deal between a major North American company and a major Japanese company.

[joshualane]

Hey Leaping Larry Jojo, I wasn't attacking you in my comment about the Ghibli DVD's and the "evil Disney Empire", that statement was for others that think there's some sort of conspiracy against them. I hear it over and over again that Disney is somehow not releasing Miyazaki films onto DVD just to spite anime fans.

For you I just wanted to point out that some of the other smaller-released films did just as poorly as Mononoke did and that perhaps what one considers a "bomb", another may consider as successful. I would consider Spirited Away a success if it made $7 million, I'm guessing that you wouldn't, but I think it's ultimately up to Disney what they consider successful for Spirited Away. Sure, they could put their marketing power behind it, but that would cost them a good $25 or $30 million (it's the average amount spent on movie marketing these days), and if the film only made $10-$15 like Powerpuff Girls or Hey Arnold, the film would have failed. I would rather see them put $2 or $3 million into marketing, make $7 million and have a successful film. I think it bodes better for eventual Ghibli DVD releases and gives Disney some more confidence that these films will be successful.

Personally, I think it would be FANTASTIC if Spirited Away got a wide release, but I also think that's a huge risk to take and if not successful could seriously impact any future Miyazaki films getting either theatrical or DVD releases. Metropolis didn't seem to do so well in theatres, but Columbia Tri-Star thought otherwise and kept the film in theatres longer than planned, even delaying the DVD release because of it. Again, I think it's all up to interpretation as to what might be considered successful.

As for the deal, yes, it was a big one, but it was an international deal and while Disney may not end up making huge profits in the US, Ghibli films do EXTREMELY well in International markets (outselling Disney videos quite often) so that's where Disney will make most of it's profits. And that's also where the films get wider releases.

[Leaping Larry Jojo]

Okay. I kinda overreacted because I see a lot of people get pissed off at fans criticising Disney's marketing approach and just assume they're bashing Disney for conspiring against Ghibli. But I guess it works both ways as well.

I know South Park's budget was mostly devoted to marketing (about 25 million), but I don't expect something in that neighbourhood. A modest but effective 8-10 million campaign would be nice, maybe even lower. I don't expect an insane occurrence like "Blair Witch" or "Crouching Tiger" but I do have this feeling that Disney expects the film to explode on its own somehow, which I feel won't happen.

I have no idea what they thought of Princess Mononoke. Somehow, I feel that they were satisfied with playing it safe and made up just about the EXACT amount they spent on it (2 million to license, so I heard. Don't know about marketing. Probably about 2-5 million as well, judging by the ad posters)

I'm also curious myself as to how SA would do with a big marketing campaign. Somehow, I might be more accepting of failure if it just bombed in wide release. Then I can say that the film truly doesn't connect with audiences (which I suspect might be true). It may hold back future Ghibli releases, but then, I can't see the cautious approach being any more successful either, because I saw the result of it in Princess Mononoke. You may say that it will pull in more audiences because it's a more accessible film than PM, but I argue that they won't even know enough about it to try it out in the first place. People go to movies not based on quality of films (that is for repeat viewings) but actually based on first impressions. And the first impression comes back to...marketing.

The problem is that I see SA as a kid's film. It's a very Japanese kid's film, but a kid's film nonetheless. And I can't see the art snobbish crowd supporting this film enough to make a good profit. Whatever people say, I tend to believe that there is a stigma against animation. If it's not for kids, more often than not, it will fail with audiences. That's why I feel that SA's best shot to even make what you're projecting (8-9 million) is to appeal to the families (show the the beautiful "family friendly" scenes, etc,.), and I don't think it has a shot if it's stuck in arthouse land.

And even if it makes 7-8 million, a "success" as you say, I don't consider that enough to get Disney off their duffs and get some of the other Ghibli films out the door quicker. For all we know, we might not see a film like Porco Rosso until 2015. I'm still wondering why Laputa isn't out even on VHS yet.

I could be wrong and it surprises the box office, but that is how I feel right now.

[joshualane]

I totally understand how you feel and definitely sympathize with your position on the marketing aspect of it. Sort of like, if Disney markets it to a wider release then the film will either succeed or fail based on it's quality, not based on the fact that not enough people saw it or knew about it to give it a chance.

[oranthal]

spirited away is more kid friendly than princess mononoke, but i think the length of the film might hurt the film's box office numbers considering kids of today have a short attention span.

[GoufCustom]

http://www.manifestation.org/~ill/images/funny/captobvious.gif

[Zero Angel]

i just saw Spirited Away a couple nights ago and i must say it was fantastic. yes it was a little long and it didnt have that epic story line that Mononoke had but it was the most beautiful peice of art in motion i have ever seen. if there was any Ghibli film to be marketed and wide released this would be it though.

think about it. it is the highest grossing non-american movie ever.

[j32885]

Quote by Elven MoonI hope it plays in Detroit or Ann Arbor. At least then I could drive over there and see it.

If Spirited Away were to be shown in Southeast Mich., it would probably be at the Landmark Theatres (http://www.landmarktheatres.com/Market/Detroit/Detroit_Frameset.htm) in Royal Oak or Birmingham. I recall the last time when I went to one of them, was back in 1997 when they showned Princess Mononoke.

I would say that Spirited Away will have a good turn out in someplaces, and will make some money. Not a huge amount like P.M. did. As many you already said, that it's long, kid friendly, and doesn't have that epic story line that P.M had.