2009 Oscar Predictions

[HG Revolution]

With the shake-ups in the Academy (notably the increased Best Picture slots) and the awesomeness of Inglourious Basterds, I guess the Oscar season is starting early this year. Here's my early predictions.

Best Picture
Avatar
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Director
Clint Eastwood (Invictus)
James Cameron (Avatar)
Katheryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Spike Jonze (Where the Wild Things Are)

Best Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Johnny Depp (Public Enemies)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)
Viggo Mortensen (The Road)

Best Actress
Abbie Cornish (Bright Star)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Hilary Swank (Amelia)
Meryl Streep (Julia and Julia)
Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones)

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Jim Broadbent (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
Kodi Smith-McPhee (The Road)
Richard Kind (A Serious Man)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)

Best Supporting Actress
Judi Dench (Nine)
Marion Cotillard (Nine)
Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds)
Mo'nique (Precious)
Rachel Weisz (The Lovely Bones)

Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
The Lovely Bones
Precious
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Original Screenplay
Bright Star
Broken Embraces
District 9
Inglourious Basterds
Up

Best Animated Film (assuming there's 5 slots this year)
Avatar (if eligible)
Coraline
9 (if Avatar isn't eligible)
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Best Art Direction
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Public Enemies
Watchmen

Best Cinematography
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Nine
The Road
The Tree of Life

Best Costume Design
Amelia
Cheri
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Film Editing
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
The Lovely Bones
Nine

Best Makeup
Nine
The Road
Star Trek

Best Original Score
Amelia
Avatar
Broken Embraces
The Lovely Bones
Up

Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
Nine
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Best Sound Editing
Avatar
District 9
Nine
Star Trek
Up

Best Special Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

[Old Guy]

It's a bit too soon. The only thing we know for sure is that Brad Pitt is an early Best Actor nomination contender for Inglourious Basterds and the guy who plays Jew Hunter in that movie is pretty much a lock for Supporting Actor nomination. He actually won at Cannes. Visual effect is also pretty obvious. The nominees will be Avatar, District 9, and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Oh, and Up is gonna get nominated for Best Animated Film.

Everything else is up in the air since, well, most people haven't seen most of these movies. Atleast wait till after the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals.

[Ragebot]

Wasn't a thread on this subject posted around the same time last year and quickly locked?

Anyway, I think you are really going on faith that all the movies you listed will end up even being good, let alone Oscar worthy. As far as I'm concerned, the jury's still out on Avatar, Nine, The Lovely Bones, and especially The Road.

[Old Guy]

I think you are really going on faith that all the movies you listed will end up even being good, let alone Oscar worthy.

It wouldn't be the first time they nominate a crappy movie.

[HG Revolution]

Wasn't a thread on this subject posted around the same time last year and quickly locked?

Anyway, I think you are really going on faith that all the movies you listed will end up even being good, let alone Oscar worthy. As far as I'm concerned, the jury's still out on Avatar, Nine, The Lovely Bones, and especially The Road.

Regardless of their quality, Avatar and Nine at least will have really aggressive campaigning which will probably get them nominated regardless of quality. The Road might as well in some categories, given the Wienstein's track record.

[CaptainHero]

Jackie Early Haley who played Rorshach (sp?) in Watchmen truly deserves a nom for Best Supporting Actor. He gave the character charisma that he never had in the original graphic novel. Even people that didn't like Watchmen were impressed with his performance.

[Old Guy]

Watchmen was released too early in year. Oscar voters tend to forgot about these early in the year stuff unless they are SO GOOD that it's on their mind by the end.

[Tapout]

Outside of possibly some technological awards I don't think the academy would be willing to attach themselves to anything Zack Snyder does anyway.

[Cortez2301]

I'm pretty sure that "Nine" willl be nominated for numerous awards including Best Actor in a Lead Role for Daniely Day Lewis and Best Picture.

I also hope "500 Days of Summer" will be nominated for best writing and there is a chance "The Soloist" (Jamie Foxx for best supporting actor), "District 9" (At the very least, a number of technical awards) and "Moon" (same as District 9) will also recieve nominations.

Either way we can't really judge till we get to December, where Oscar season begins.

[Baltofan]

Best Picture:
Up
Where the wild things Are
The Lovely Bones

Best Animated Film:
Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs
9
Avatar
Planet 51
The Princess and the Frog

Best Foreign Language Film:
Coco Avant Chanel
Paris
The Girl who played with Fire

Best Actress:
Audrey Tatou (Coco Avant Chanel)

Best Art Direction:
Up
The Lovely Bones
Avatar

Best Costume Design:
Coco Avant Chanel
Where the Wild Things Are

[Old Guy]

we can't really judge till we get to December, where Oscar season begins.

Oscar season officially begins after the Toronto Film Festival which begins after Labor Day weekend. And here's the current U.S. theatrical release schedule for the Oscar bait movies:

September 11 - 9 (animation)
September 18 - The Informant (actor, Matt Damon)
September 25 - Capitalism: A Love Story (documentary, Michael Moore)
October 2 - Whip It (screenplay), A Serious Man (Coen Bros' latest)
October 9 - Good Hair (documentary, Chris Rock)
October 16 - The Road (actor), Where the Wild Things Are (technical)
October 23 - Amelia (actress, Hilary Swank)
November 6 - Christmas Carol (animation), The Men Who Stare at Goats (George Clooney), and Precious (indie hit from Sundance)
November 20 - Planet 51 (animation)
November 25 - Nine (major Oscar bait), The Fantastic Mr. Fox (animation)
December 4 - Brothers (actor, Tobey Maguire), Everybody's Fine (Juno/Little Miss Sunshine wannabe)
December 11 - The Lovely Bones (Peter Jackson), The Princess and the Frog (animation), and Invictus (Clint Eastwood)
December 18 - Avatar (James Cameron)
December 25 - Sherlock Holmes (technical)

[HG Revolution]

Jackie Early Haley who played Rorshach (sp?) in Watchmen truly deserves a nom for Best Supporting Actor. He gave the character charisma that he never had in the original graphic novel. Even people that didn't like Watchmen were impressed with his performance.

If WB's going to push any performance in a "popcorn movie", it's going to be Jim Broadbent in Half-Blood Prince.

[CaptainHero]

If WB's going to push any performance in a "popcorn movie", it's going to be Jim Broadbent in Half-Blood Prince.


Eh, I don't know. Harry Potter movies are never ones to attract Oscar attention outside of costume design or special effects. Have you even seen Watchmen? Haley blew that thing away.

And to the poster who said Snyder would be ignored by the Oscars, why so? The man has some pretty damn good talent and the visual effects in Watchmen were amazing.

[Tapout]

And to the poster who said Snyder would be ignored by the Oscars, why so? The man has some pretty damn good talent and the visual effects in Watchmen were amazing.That's what I said. He could easily get some technical stuff, but acting/directing/writing? Not gonna happen.

[HG Revolution]

Eh, I don't know. Harry Potter movies are never ones to attract Oscar attention outside of costume design or special effects. Have you even seen Watchmen? Haley blew that thing away.

Haley was incredible, but then again so was Mickey Rourke in Sin City and that whole movie got snubbed. I don't think the Academy is that into the whole ultra-faithful comic adaptation style. Art Direction is probably Watchmen's best chance since unlike Sin City and 300 it had actual sets. Seeing as Half-Blood Prince is generally considered one of the best of the series, even having some press wonder if it could make it in with 10 nominees (not going to happen), and Jim Broadbent being the best actor in the series outside of Alan Rickman, whom the Academy has never given any love to for some odd reason, I figure WB will campaign harder for HP than Watchmen. Whether either film gets nominated is more of a question.

[Old Guy]

I doubt Harry Potter will be nominated in any of the major categories. It hasn't happened before, so why would it happen now? It's not like the new movie is that much better than the others.

Besides, the Oscars strategy to attract a wider audience with their new telecast only revolves around the Best Picture nominees, which is why they expanded to 10. Everything else will be the same.

[mumbo]

I really think Star Trek is a strong contender for a Best Picture nom. Namely because of the expansion to ten slots, which they'll be using for blockbusters to try and increase ratings. Of the top grossing movies this year, it and Up are really the only two that stand a chance. And that 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes can't hurt.

Up is probably a shoe-in too, especially with the big deal made over WALL-E last year. And there really shouldn't be any doubt that it will win Best Animated Feature.

I'd guess Nine will win Best Picture though. It's pretty much custom-built for the Academy to take notice. Whether it's good or not, I'm pretty sure they'll take the bait.

[DonkeyKongSong]

Worst Film of 2009
Miss March

... Just kidding! Or am I? :confused:

[Old Guy]

I really think Star Trek is a strong contender for a Best Picture nom.

The only way Star Trek will be nominated is if most of the movies this Fall and Winter end up being bad.

[DonkeyKongSong]

I also heard they were considering Julie & Julia.

[Ragebot]

I'd guess Nine will win Best Picture though. It's pretty much custom-built for the Academy to take notice.

Keep in mind that this is no less than the third re-make/filmic homage to Fellini's 81/2 after Bob Fosse's All That Jazz and Woody Allen's Stardust Memories. Rob Marshall may or may not be nominated for Best Director (he was snubbed for Chicago), but I don't know, I would be quite perturbed if he won while Fellini didn't in 1964.

[Old Guy]

The Oscar voters have been leaning towards dark and edgy these past few years. Million Dollar Baby, Crash, The Departed, No Country for Old Men, and Slumdog Millionaire were the last five winners. Either they'll continue in that route or change things up a bit.

[HG Revolution]

The Oscar voters have been leaning towards dark and edgy these past few years. Million Dollar Baby, Crash, The Departed, No Country for Old Men, and Slumdog Millionaire were the last five winners. Either they'll continue in that route or change things up a bit.

Thinking out of the box, maybe District 9? I just saw it and not only is it great, but it has the same sort of grit and storytelling strength as Slumdog. Of course, it does seem like it might be "too cool" for Best Picture, but then again it did receive a huge standing ovation at a recent Academy screening...

[Old Guy]

They expanded to 10 nominees for a reason. 5 of those will be the usual Oscar ones. The other 5 will be the more crowd-pleasing ones that will attract audiences. So, District 9 does have a chance at the moment.

[HG Revolution]

With the NBR out, it's probably a good time to revive this thread:


Best Picture
Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious
Up
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Director
James Cameron (Avatar)
Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)
Katheryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)
Lee Daniels (Precious)
Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

Best Actor
Colin Firth (A Single Man)
George Clooney (Up in the Air)
Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)
Michael Stuhlbarg (A Serious Man)
Morgan Freeman (Invictus)

Best Actress
Abbie Cornish (Bright Star)
Carey Mulligan (An Education)
Gabourey Sidibe (Precious)
Meryl Streep (Julia and Julia)
Melanie Laurent (Inglourious Basterds)

Best Supporting Actor
Alfred Molina (An Education)
Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)
Christopher Plummer (The Last Station)
Jim Broadbent (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones)

Best Supporting Actress
Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air)
Helen Mirren (The Last Station)
Juliane Moore (A Single Man)
Mo'nique (Precious)
Penelope Cruz (Nine)

Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
District 9
Precious
Up in the Air
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Original Screenplay
(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

Best Animated Film
Coraline
The Fantastic Mr. Fox
Ponyo
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Best Art Direction
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
The Lovely Bones
Nine
Sherlock Holmes

Best Cinematography
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Costume Design
Cheri
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
Where the Wild Things Are

Best Film Editing
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Up in the Air

Best Makeup
District 9
The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus
Star Trek

Best Original Score
Avatar
Broken Embraces
The Lovely Bones
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Best Sound Mixing
Avatar
Nine
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Best Sound Editing
Avatar
District 9
Nine
Star Trek
Up

Best Special Effects
Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

[Pepperidge]

If Up gets a Best Picture nomination (which I expect it will be), then it's probably not going to be up for best Animated.

[Old Guy]

With the NBR out

What NBR changed was making Up in the Air a top contender. For a while it seemed like Precious would be the one but now it isn't as certain.

[Lord Dalek]

You want BP nominees?

The Lovely Bones
Invictus
Nine (which won't win due to its status as a remake of a remake)
Avatar (...yeah right)
*Up in the Air
Precious: Based Off the Novel "Push" by Saphire (dark horse)
The Hurt Locker
An Education
The Road
Up (won't win but what the hell...)

There you go.

*Denotes what I consider the winner.

[underdog]

I also do hope "(500) Days of Summer" makes the list as well.

[HG Revolution]

If Up gets a Best Picture nomination (which I expect it will be), then it's probably not going to be up for best Animated.

Nah, it'd be up for both, like how Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was up for both Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film.


What NBR changed was making Up in the Air a top contender. For a while it seemed like Precious would be the one but now it isn't as certain.

I dunno if Precious ever was at the top. It's a lock for a nom but it seems like one of those movies that might be too painful for some to really love.


You want BP nominees?

The Lovely Bones
Invictus
Nine (which won't win due to its status as a remake of a remake)
Avatar (...yeah right)
*Up in the Air
Precious: Based Off the Novel "Push" by Saphire (dark horse)
The Hurt Locker
An Education
The Road
Up (won't win but what the hell...)

There you go.

*Denotes what I consider the winner.

I'm pretty sure The Lovely Bones has fallen out of contention for Best Picture. Reviews have been extremely mixed with most mainstream critics disliking it and the most charitable reactions coming from AICN and other nerd sites. Of course, Invictus is getting mixed reviews but it seems pretty safe since it's the type of movie everyone in the Academy can "get" while The Lovely Bones is supposed to be the type of movie a lot of people just won't "get". It's apparent failure will probably allow District 9, Peter Jackson's better-liked production, to sneak in.

I don't think The Road really has a chance either outside of Mortensen. It's the Weinsteins' fourth priority in terms of Oscar campaigning behind Nine, Basterds, and A Single Man and the raves needed to give these sorts of bleak films a chance just aren't there.

[Ragebot]

Precious as a dark horse? Right. It's destined to stay in the top ten of the American Box Office for the rest of the year and will probably make at least $100 mil. To say nothing of Oprah's clout.

It definately seems to be only that and Up in the Air that have any real chance of winning.

Edit: I also predict a lot of mediocre Oscar-bait filling out those 5-10 slots. It'll be like last year, only worse.

[Old Guy]

I catched Up in the Air at a matinee this morning. It's good, but definitely not the best of the year. However, Anna Kendrick is definitely a shoe-in for Best Supporting Actress.

[Lord Dalek]

I'm pretty sure The Lovely Bones has fallen out of contention for Best Picture. Reviews have been extremely mixed with most mainstream critics disliking it and the most charitable reactions coming from AICN and other nerd sites. Of course, Invictus is getting mixed reviews but it seems pretty safe since it's the type of movie everyone in the Academy can "get" while The Lovely Bones is supposed to be the type of movie a lot of people just won't "get". It's apparent failure will probably allow District 9, Peter Jackson's better-liked production, to sneak in.
And this is coming from somebody who thinks "Where The Wild Things Are" is going to get a nomination...

[HG Revolution]

And this is coming from somebody who thinks "Where The Wild Things Are" is going to get a nomination...

The thing is, the people who love that movie REALLY love it. I mean, it made AO Scott's top 10 of the whole decade, whereas the good reviews for Bones are respectful but not enthusiastic on the same level. Plus, the NBR...

[The Cartoon]

I'll just post on the two categories I know about.

Best Picture:
Up
Up in the Air
500 Days of Summer
Precious
Invictus
The Hurt Locker
Nine
Star Trek
The Informant
Avatar

5 crowd pleasers and 5 contenders, I think that's what the academy intended. I looked at a list of contenders to be nominated and Fantastic Mr. Fox was up there but Princess and the Frog wasn't. I guess there's no hope for it, granite I'm only assuming it will be great.

Best Animated Picture

Up
Princess and the Frog
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Ponyo

I have changed it a little bit after hearing that Mr. Fox is great. Still not sure if Ponyo will make it or not actually, but I'm keeping it in mind. I'm really disappointed that a Pixar fan such as myself has yet to see Up. If it is nominated for Best Picture, there is a chance it will stay out of the Best Animated Picture category, correct?

[underdog]

I'm really disappointed that a Pixar fan such as myself has yet to see Up. If it is nominated for Best Picture, there is a chance it will stay out of the Best Animated Picture category, correct?

I don't think so. All movies are eligible for the Best Picture category regardless if they are live action or not; so I believe it is possible for Up to be nominated for both categories.

But there's always seem to be a double standard for the animated films at the Oscars, so I wouldn't be surprised if Up will be snubbed from the Best Picture category.

..and you gotta see Up, it's a wonderful film!

[Ragebot]

Looks like Nine isn't doing so hot (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/nine_2009/)...

[Lord Dalek]

Looks like Nine isn't doing so hot (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/nine_2009/)...

Good! Ever since the fiasco of 1997 I've been angered by the Weinsteins and their attempts to "buy" the oscars by overloading the winter season with overblown "critically acclaimed" Oscar bait, thus detracting from far more deserving films.

Since "The Shipping News" their strategy has been rebounding on them. The more the merrier.

[Ragebot]

It would be naive to think that it won't be nominated for technical awards, at the very least.

And unfortunately, the odds of it being nominated for Best Picture are probably still just as high as those of The Reader...:shrug:

[Old Guy]

It would be naive to think that it won't be nominated for technical awards, at the very least.

It'll probably get a costume nomination and stuff like that.

[JasonFox]

I'm not enjoying people say that Nine defintely wont win Best Picture because its a remake of a remake, look at Rob Marshalls other movie Chicago a remake of the 1929 film which is a remake of a broadway musical. Chicago did win best pictrure.

[Old Guy]

AFI's Top 10 Films of 2009

"Coraline"
"The Hangover"
"The Hurt Locker"
"The Messenger"
"Precious: Based On The Novel ‘Push’ By Sapphire"
"A Serious Man"
"A Single Man"
"Sugar"
"Up"
"Up In The Air"