Oscar Predictions

[Donald Duck 12]

Eligable films are announced. Any predictions? Me: Shrek 2, Incredibles, and Polar Express. Usually there's a foreign film that does well in Oscars, but those three seem most likely. Why only three spots? 2003 had 5 and so do all of the other catargories.

[Nin-Nin69]

Ghost in the Shell 2 better be on that list. I strongly believe either that or The Incredibles will win.

Shrek 2 and Shark Tales don't deserve to be on that list.

[Nobuyuki sama]

The award is The Incredibles to lose.

[Rover_Wow]

Eligable films are announced. Any predictions? Me: Shrek 2, Incredibles, and Polar Express. Usually there's a foreign film that does well in Oscars, but those three seem most likely. Why only three spots? 2003 had 5 and so do all of the other catargories.

B/C there were more animated films released in 2003. Duh.
Anyone think SpongeBob can eke its way into the nominations like Jimmy Neutron did 2 years back? :D

[JDWeil]

The link didn't come through here, but I'll list the films that are eligible:


Clifford's Really Big Movie
Ghost In the Shell 2: Innocence
Home On the Range
The Incredibles
The Legend Of Buddha
The Polar Express
Shrek 2
Shark Tale
Sky Blue
Spongebob Squarepants Movie


My picks would be: Shark Tale; The Incredibles; and maybe Ghost In the Shell 2

[TnAdct1]

My list of what the Oscars nominees will be like:

DEFINITES:
Shrek II
The Incredibles

MOST LIKELY:
Shark Tale
The Polar Express

DARK HORSE:
Ghost in the Shell 2: Innocence
Sky Blue (aka Wonderful Days)

UNKNOWN:
Spongebob Squarepants Movie

VERY DOUBTFUL:
Everything Else

[Discloner]

If the reviews and hype about the Incredibles holds up after people actually see it's final version...I think it'll win.

Shrek 2, while Fun...doesn't really deserve the award IMO, and none of the other movies were all that fantastic (Save the few I haven't seen...which I can't comment on).

[Dee]

Shrek 2 and Shark Tales don't deserve to be on that list.
Thats YOUR opinion. I personally think 'ghost in the shell' doesn't deserve to be mentioned here, and that's mine.

I believe the Incredibles will continue Pixar's haul. It's a strong film and as usual, it's made quite well and with an overall appeal to many. Same with Shrek 2. Like the first, it was well made with many people in mind. The humor was good, and I really liked the animation. Some really good stuff from these studios.

[Behonkiss]

If The Incredibles is as good as people are saying, I'm putting my money on it.

I just hope that Pixar doesn't start winning every year. Their films are fantastic, but the award just wouldn't be much fun.

[Juu-kuchi]

Shrek 2 and the Incredibles are just a plain shoe-in likely candidate.

I have a feeling that all Japanese-animated films sans Miyazaki ones will be discriminated and that the only anime films that will win is Miyazaki's.

[Chris Wood]

Likely nominees

Ghost In the Shell 2: Innocence -
Haven't seen it yet, but if it's like the first it's visually and intellectually impressive, and the Academy goes for that

The Incredibles - Haven't seen it, but it looks great and we know the Academy likes Pixar

Shrek 2 - it's not good enough to be here, but it made a lot of money so it may get in

Spongebob Squarepants Movie - a dark horse to be sure, but as a fan I have to be in its corner

Unknowns

The Legend Of Buddha - ?????
Sky Blue - ??????
The Polar Express - hard to say without seeing it. Could go either way.

Junk

Clifford's Really Big Movie

Home On the Range

Shark Tale

[Baltofan]

I hope for Home On The Range, Polar Express, Incredibles and Shrek 2, but I haven´t heard about the other ones.
There was a French animated movie in the Noa´s Ark style that I think should be nominated, but I can´t remember the title, and I haven´t seen it.
Edit:It was named Raining Cats & Frogs.

[Sharklady]

I just saw 'The Incredibles', and I'm sure it will be nominated.

Winning is less certain. It's definitely good, but it's no 'Finding Nemo.'

[Nin-Nin69]

Thats YOUR opinion. I personally think 'ghost in the shell' doesn't deserve to be mentioned here, and that's mine.

Well if you believe that the oscar should go to a feature film that has celeberity faces glued onto imaginary creatues with tons of movie/tv references based plots and 3D animtation trapped in 1996, be my guest. Then again if you believe that the award should go towards a feature film that has a strong and fluent animation, a great story, and leaves you thinking about the movie long after you leave the theater, then Ghost in the Shell 2 or The Incredibles are for you.

[Donald Duck 12]

Incredibles: 11
Shrek 2: 4
Ghost in Shell: 4
Polar Express: 2
Spongebob: 2
Shark Tale: 1
Home on the Range: 1

So will the Oscars mirror these results?

[Dudley]

Incredibles, The Polar Express, and Ghost in the Shell: Innocence.

If Kaena: the Prophecy was on that list, I would predict that would get nominated.

If Shrek 2 gets nominated wouldn't that be like the second time a sequel got nominated for an Oscar?

[TnAdct1]

Sky Blue - ?????? From my sources from various newsgroups, Sky Blue is the English dub name of the Korean animated film Wonderful Days. As I mentioned eariler, I have this as a possible dark horse.

[lostrune]

I have a feeling the Oscar Animation Committee won't nominate GitS2: Innocence because it's not dubbed and too intellectual for their enjoyment. And it didn't come with all the credentials that Spirited Away brought with it. :shrug:

[Terrence Briggs]

Stanlee speaks the truth. Spirited Away's greatest competition was a pretty darn good (but relatively underperforming) Disney flick, Lilo & Stitch, that isn't held in the highest esteem by the unwashed animation secular Oscar voting block.

GitS2 must compete with one of the highest-grossing animated films of all time (behind Jungle Book and Snow White, adjusting for inflation) in Shrek 2, and a Pixar flick from a bonafide filmmaker that could compete with Shrek 2 at the box office. If The Incredibles is popular, people may forget about Shrek 2 come Oscar time, if that's possible.

GitS2 won't even be nominated, BTW, so long as Shark Tale and Home on the Range are around to take up valuable space. Spongebob might be the Jimmy Neutron nod this year, but Polar Express instead will be nominated if it doesn't suck.

[Caffeine King]

Shrek 2 will most likely win the Oscar. :shrug:

[Terrence Briggs]

Incredibles may make a HUGE impression, though. Ebert reviews The Polar Express on this week's show, and he was positively stark raving mad over it. Maybe it'll be the first truly competitive three-way race in the history of the award.

BTW, there will only be 3 nominees this year, since fewer than 13 films are eligible or somethin'.

[ToonifiedGuy222]

The winner is either Polar Express (Based on "Award Winning" book) or Shrek 2 (#1 Comedy and #1 Animated Movies of All-time). Its just that simple.

[Terrence Briggs]

But why shortchange "The Incredibles", if it performans nearly as well (if not better than) Shrek 2?

[Sharklady]

> If Shrek 2 gets nominated wouldn't that be like the second time a sequel got nominated for an Oscar? <

IIRC, both 'Godfather 2' and 'Godfather 3' were nominees.
But they were exceptionally good sequels.

[Nobuyuki sama]

IIRC, both 'Godfather 2' and 'Godfather 3' were nominees.
But they were exceptionally good sequels. Godfather 3 was neither. :p

[Sharklady]

^ 'Godfather 3' my not have been much as 'Godfather' movies go, but it was above average as a sequel. Enough so to be nominated for Best Film of 1990 (the other nominees being 'Goodfellas', 'Ghost', 'Awakenings', and the winning 'Dances With Wolves'.)

[Chris Wood]

^ 'Godfather 3' my not have been much as 'Godfather' movies go, but it was above average as a sequel. Enough so to be nominated for Best Film of 1990 (the other nominees being 'Goodfellas', 'Ghost', 'Awakenings', and the winning 'Dances With Wolves'.)

And just like it would have been a crime for Goodfellas to lose to Godfather 3, it would be a crime for Incredibles, GITS, etc to lose to Shrek 2.

[Eddie G.]

I enjoyed Shrek 2 but I will be disgusted if it wins the oscar. I haven't seen The Incredibles yet but the stunning animation and character designs that look like cartoon characters are already enough for me to put it above Shrek. Frankly I don't think Shrek should've won 2001, Monsters Inc. as it turns out really is a better movie in retrospect. Hell I wouldn't have minded if Waking Life had won in 2001.

[TimTwoFace]

I think this will be quite the tight race, this year. Ultimately I think the decision will come down to SHREK 2 or THE INCREDIBLES; I loved both movies, but honestly, I'd probably pick the latter.

As for the other choices:

Clifford's Really Big Movie
-ain't gonna happen

Ghost In the Shell 2: Innocence
-haven't seen it so I can't say.

Home On the Range
-hell no

The Legend Of Buddha
-haven't seen it

The Polar Express
-has promise, but I doubt it

Shark Tale
-too pop-culture heavy, not enough story; decent film, but Shrek 2 will steal all the Dreamworks-votes anyway.

Sky Blue
-don't know about this one.

Spongebob Squarepants Movie
-ehhhhhh, no.

-Tim

[Karl Olson]

Very Likely to be nominated:
The Incredibles - It'll probably win too, because it'll blow Shrek 2 and Shark Tale out of the water.
Ghost In the Shell 2: Innocence - The token art film and anime nominee. Next year it'll be Howl's Moving Castle. Unlike Howl, this probably won't stand a chance. Miyazaki's accessible, GitS2 isn't, unfortunately.
Shrek 2 - Because it's CG with celeb VAs and it made a bunch of money.
Shark Tale - Because it's CG with celeb VAs and it made a bunch of money.

Possible:
Spongebob Squarepants Movie - If it doesn't bomb, and it's reviewed decently, they'll nominate it because after all, Neutron got a nod.
The Polar Express - Unless of course this does well, at which point it'll take spongebob's slot.
Home On the Range - But this could ace all the possibles because it's Disney's last cel gasp.

No-way:
Clifford's Really Big Movie - Commercial tie-in that flopped. Not gonna happen.
Teacher's Pet - If any TV-to-Movie picture gets a nomination, it'll be Spongebob.
Sky Blue - Inspite of it being Korea's Akira, the US version was so thrashed, it won't likely get a nod.
The Legend Of Buddha - In another year, it would have gotten in a la Triplets of Belleville, but there are too many domestic films taking up slots this year. Besides, India's just getting warmed with their animation industry.


My bets are on an all CG showing, with Incredibles, Shark Tale and Shrek 2 grabbing the nods. Which will be boring, as only the Incredibles actually has any lasting value out those 3.

[Terrence Briggs]

Adding a few observations to Karl's ruminations:

There will only be three nominees this year, so that favors the highest-grossing films. Shrek 2 and Incredibles are locked in. The question is, will Polar Express outdraw Shark Tale. Doubtful, as PE only scored $4 million on Wednesday and Thursday. I say it grosses $20-$25 million this weekend, then gets buried under The Incredibles' staying power.

I may be wrong, but is PE considered too "creepy" in look for the general public? If that's the case, it could be the next Final Fantasy - exiled to the Razzies.

Shark Tale was considered mediocre, by and large, so Home on the Range could shore up the third spot if Disney pushes it.

No one saw GitS2, so it doesn't stand a chance of being nominated. Unlike Spirited Away, it's far too "cold" for the general public. Sure, it got into Cannes competition, but so did Elephant, and that WON the Grand Jury Prize in 2001.

If Spongebob gets in, it won't be for the same reason Jimmy Neutron got in. JN was the token third nominee in a 2-way race between the year's only two blockbuster animated films: Monsters, Inc. and Shrek. There's far more "worthy" competition this year, so Spongebob will have to get in for being good. Shouldn't be too hard, if Shark Tale, Home on the Range, and Polar Express underwhelmed the public as much as I beleive they did.

All the same, the real race is between the box office takes of Shrek 2 and Incredibles. If The Incredibles beats Finding Nemo, expect a tight race once the nominees are announced, and the larger voting block of animation seculars decide to cast votes.

To be frank, Shrek 2 is the sentimental comedy, while Incredibles is the occassionaly somber action flick. Incredibles might be considered too loud, mean, and violent a cartoon to win the votes of oversensitive adults, so that block will go to the "softer" Shrek 2. The other big block might vote AGAINST Shrek 2, since it's a sequel (arguably an infrerior one) and the original won already :)

Other thoughts?

[RayChuang]

I personally think it's either Shrek 2 or The Incredibles that wins Best Animated Feature Oscar. Both films have their supporters, and it will be a very close race to see which one actually wins. :)

[Baltofan]

I hope that Demnark will be nominated in 2006 for the sequel to Amazon Jack.
For those who do not know Amazon Jack, here is the cover to the video:

http://thormar.dk/images/jungledyret_hugo_2.jpg

[Luna]

I'm hoping The Incredibles will win....I loved it....(Pixar is awesome!!!...I've liked all of their films so far,and The Incredibles is,IMO,their best work yet)..

I wouldn't mind if Shrek 2 was nominated,though(it was funny,and I loved Puss in Boots)

I didn't like Home on the Range(too kiddie;and not really that funny),so I hope it isn't nominated...

and I haven't seen any of the other potential nominees...